GMAT逻辑考点|新型冠状病毒 vs流感

　　在一篇《How Does the New Coronavirus compare with the Flu?》的文章中，作者Rachael Rettner指出新型冠状病毒与流行性感冒之间的许多不同。

　　其中最大的不同，科学家对流行性感冒非常了解，甚至可以对于每年流感开始、结束的时期，患病人数、住院人数进行比较精确的预测。

图片来源于网络

　　Dr. Anthony Fauci, director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, said in a White House press conference on Jan. 31. “I can tell you all, guaranteed, that as we get into March and April, the flu cases are going to go down. You could predict pretty accurately what the range of the mortality is and the hospitalizations [will be],” Fauci said. “The issue now with [2019-nCoV] is that there’s a lot of unknowns.”

　　然而对于新型冠状病毒，确知之甚少。正是由于这种未知，使我们面对非常多的不确定性和担忧。

　　Scientists have studied seasonal flu for decades. So, despite the danger of it, we know a lot about flu viruses and what to expect each season. In contrast, very little is known about 2019-nCoV because it’s so new. This means 2019-nCoV is something of a wild card in terms of how far it will spread and how many deaths it will cause.

　　“已知”和“未知”， known& unknown 是影响很多决策的重要因素。

　　很多时候，已知的问题带来的风险要比未知的问题带来的风险小很多。因为在面对已知问题时，我们知道该如何识别和解决，从而将损失降到最低。而面对未知的问题时，我们需要先投入大量时间和精力去分析，获得数据，深入了解，才能更好地应对。

　　因此很多决策都是倾向于接受已知的问题。

　　那么“已知”和“未知”是如何体现在咱们GMAT考试中的呢?我们来看这样一个argument：

　　An airplane engine manufacturer developed a new engine model with safety features lacking in the earlier model, which was still being manufactured. During the first year that both were sold, the earlier model far outsold the new model; the manufacturer thus concluded that safety was not the customers’ primary consideration.Which of the following, if true, would most seriously weaken the manufacturer’s conclusion?

　　(A) Both private plane owners and commercial airlines buy engines from this airplane engine manufacturer.(B) Many customers consider earlier engine models better safety risks than new engine models, since more is usually known about the safety of the earlier models.(C) Many customers of this airplane engine manufacturer also bought airplane engines from manufacturers who did not provide additional safety features in their newer models.(D) The newer engine model can be used in all planes in which the earlier engine model can be used.(E) There was no significant difference in price between the newer engine model and the earlier engine model. 前提：飞机引擎制造商同时生产旧款的引擎和新款的更安全的引擎。然而旧款的引擎的销量更大。结论：制造商因此认为：既然客户不愿意买更安全的新引擎，他们一定并不认为安全是最重要的因素。 B选项指出，客户选择旧款的引擎是因为他们熟知旧款存在的风险，如果出现问题，可以很快地解决;而新款的引擎，尽管有更多安全特征，但是他们并不了解它会存在哪些问题，所以对客户来说，风险更从。 了解了”known &unknown “之间的区别，这种考点的问题就迎刃而解啦! 参考文章：How Does the New Coronavirus compare with the Flu?, By Rachael Rettner, LiveScience on February 7, 2020